I couldn't help but share this interesting article I read from the NY times the other day...
A couple scientists created a math model of a human being, plugging in variables (height, food intake, weight, and exercise levels) to predict how the body will react to changes in caloric intake and physical activity. They found that huge variations in daily food intake won't cause variations in weight as long as the average intake over a year is about the same (sorry, bad news if you're on the "cheaters" diet). It also takes time for the body to adjust to shifts in weight, caloric intake and physical activity; every person's body adjusts differently. Another interesting finding was the bigger you get the easier it becomes to gain weight; so an extra 10 calories/day adds more weight to an obese individual than it would a thinner person. (Dreifus, C: A Conversation with Carson Chow: A mathematical challenge to Obesity)
So.. What's so cool about it? These guys created a Human Weight Simulator to calculate the caloric needs required to reach a goal weight in a specified number of days. These calculations also take into account changes in physical activity levels, and won't let you put in a body weight goal that is at an unhealthy Body Mass Index. It's basically a realistic approach to calculating caloric needs for weight maintenance, gain or loss by using a mathematical form. (NIDDK Body Weight Simulator)
Overall, the take home message is that weight change and maintenance doesn't happen overnight. Yes, the research still proves that calories in = calories out, so if you take in less calories (or burn more than you take in) you will lose weight, the important thing to realize is the work it takes to burn a calorie is different for each person.
It's not rocket science, just a little bit of math.
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